• "Global Systemic Rupture"

    From Steve Asher@3:800/432 to All on Saturday, February 25, 2006 01:22:48
    EUROPE 2020 ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture
    March 20-26, 2006:
    Iran/USA - Release of global world crisis

    The Laboratoire europeen d'Anticipation Politique Europe 2020
    (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week
    of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant
    political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron
    Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a
    scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will
    be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting
    in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis,
    disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran.
    In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major
    crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.

    An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events

    The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions
    taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis,
    i.e. the United States and Iran:

    on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first
    oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available
    to all oil producers of the region ;

    on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal
    Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on
    the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006
    onward [1].

    These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes
    and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between
    the order created after World War II and the new international
    equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their
    magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the
    tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a
    decade throughout the international system.

    A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises

    LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent
    crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect
    during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a
    total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic
    and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably

    1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
    2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
    3. Oil crisis
    4. Crisis of the American leadership
    5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
    6. Global governance crisis
    7. European governance crisis

    The entire process of anticipation of this crisis will be described in
    detail in the coming issues of LEAP/E2020's confidential letter - the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, and in particular in the 2nd issue
    to be released on February 16, 2006.

    [... ...]

    Full article at "Europe 2020" http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

    Cheers, Steve..

    * Origin: Xaragmata / Adelaide SA telnet://xaragmata.thebbs.org (3:800/432)