EUROPE 2020 ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture
March 20-26, 2006:
Iran/USA - Release of global world crisis

The Laboratoire europeen d'Anticipation Politique Europe 2020
(LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week
of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant
political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron
Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a
scope comparable with that of 1929. This last week of March 2006 will
be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting
in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis,
disregard any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran.
In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major
crisis to start rises up to 100%, according to LEAP/E2020.

An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events

The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions
taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis,
i.e. the United States and Iran:

on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first

oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available
to all oil producers of the region ;

on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal

Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on
the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006
onward [1].

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes
and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between
the order created after World War II and the new international
equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their
magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the
tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a
decade throughout the international system.

A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises

LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent
crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect
during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a
total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic
and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably
too:

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis

The entire process of anticipation of this crisis will be described in
detail in the coming issues of LEAP/E2020's confidential letter - the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, and in particular in the 2nd issue
to be released on February 16, 2006.

[... ...]

Full article at "Europe 2020" http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm

Cheers, Steve..

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* Origin: Xaragmata / Adelaide SA telnet://xaragmata.thebbs.org (3:800/432)