12/29/2022

Tad Cook, K7RA, of Seattle, Washington, reports for this week's ARRL Propagation Bulletin, ARLP052, December 29, 2022:

This reporting week, December 22 - 28, 2022, saw declining solar numbers and rising geomagnetic indicators. Average daily sunspot numbers dropped from 124.1 to 96.1, and solar flux from 153.8 to 143.8. Average planetary A index rose from 6.7 to 17.3, and middle latitude numbers from 5.1 to 12.6.

Predicted solar flux is 158 and 156 on December 29 - 30; 154 on December 31, 2022 through January 1, 2023; 156, 156, and 154 on January 2 - 4; 140 on January 5 - 8; 136 on January 9; 130 on January 10 - 14; 128 and 125 on January 15 - 16; 120 on January 17 - 20; 125, 135, 136, 138, 132, 134, and 132 on January 21 - 27, and 130 on January 28 - 29.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 16, 14, 10, and 8 on December 29, 2022 through January 2, 2023; 5 on January 3 - 4; 10, 8, and 10 on January 5 - 7; 5 on January 8 - 16; 8, 12, 25, and 20 on January 17 - 20; 10 on January 21 - 22; 20, 15, 10, 15, and 12 on January 23 -  27, and 10, 5, and 18 on January 28 - 30.

The observatory near Penticton, British Columbia, is the source for our solar flux numbers. The staff leaves annually from Christmas to the new year. The system is automated, and we get the daily noon readings from this source:

https://bit.ly/3hWlhN1[1]

Unfortunately, the system crashed on December 24, 2022, and no readings were posted after Christmas Eve.

Thanks to Dr. Andrew Gray, Research Council Officer at the Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory, for monitoring his email while on holiday and supplying us with the 4 days of missing data.

Don't forget, New Year's Eve (in North America) and New Year's Day is Straight Key Night:

http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night[2]

Send your tips, reports, observations, questions, and comments to k7ra@arrl.net[3].

Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28, 2022, were 108, 100, 85, 107, 96, 89, and 88, with a mean of 96.1. The 10.7-centimeter flux was 131.3, 127.7, 133.3, 144, 150.5, 159, and 160.4, with a mean of 143.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 12, 24, 23, 10, 22, 25, and 5, with a mean of 17.3. Middle latitude A index was 7, 19, 15, 8, 19, 16, and 4, with a mean of 12.6.

A comprehensive K7RA Solar Update is posted Fridays on the ARRL website. For more information concerning radio propagation, visit[4] the ARRL Technical Information Service, read[5] "What the Numbers Mean..." and check out[6] the Propagation Page of Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA.

A propagation bulletin archive[7] is available. For customizable propagation charts, visit the VOACAP Online for Ham Radio[8] website.

Share[9] your reports and observations.

A weekly, full report is posted on ARRL News[10].


[1] https://bit.ly/3hWlhN1
[2] http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night
[3] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http://k9la.us/
[7] http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation
[8] https://www.voacap.com/hf/
[9] mailto:k7ra@arrl.net
[10] http://www.arrl.org/news

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