• MESO: Tornado Watch OhioV

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tuesday, April 02, 2024 15:19:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 021929
    SPC MCD 021928

    Mesoscale Discussion 0351
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of far southern IL into western/northern KY...southern IN...and southwestern OH

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 75...76...

    Valid 021928Z - 030215Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 75, 76 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving across western Kentucky and southern
    Indiana should continue to pose some severe risk this afternoon.
    Downstream watch issuance will eventually be needed. Tornadoes,
    large hail, and damaging winds all appear possible. A strong tornado
    may also occur with any supercell that can be sustained.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has generally struggled to intensify this
    afternoon in far southern IL/western KY along a pre-frontal
    trough/wind shift line. Still, the airmass downstream is attempting
    to destabilize in the wake of earlier convection across parts of
    northern KY and southern IN. Visible satellite imagery shows some
    clearing across this area, with surface temperatures gradually
    warming into the 70s in the vicinity of the Ohio River. The
    low-level airmass is also slowly moistening as the outflow boundary
    from morning thunderstorms becomes less well defined, with surface
    dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 60s. Enhanced deep-layer
    shear of 50-60 kt will support supercells with associated hail
    threat, if any can develop ahead of the ongoing cluster. Otherwise,
    favorable low-level shear, with effective SRH around 250-300 m2/s2,
    will also foster a tornado risk assuming robust thunderstorms can be
    sustained. A strong tornado appears possible given the strength of
    the low-level flow/shear shown in recent VWPs from KLVX. Damaging
    winds remain a possibility with any small clusters. Given current
    observational trends and gradual destabilization occurring
    downstream of the ongoing activity, a downstream Tornado Watch into
    parts of central KY, southern IN, and southwestern OH will likely be
    needed before the scheduled 20Z expiration of WW 75.

    ..Gleason.. 04/02/2024


    LAT...LON 38058774 38998711 39328656 39608544 39638422 39128378
    38558394 37968431 37498472 36918625 36858829 37358861
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