• MESO: Severe Potential SE

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Tuesday, April 09, 2024 09:15:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 091348
    SPC MCD 091348

    Mesoscale Discussion 0395
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0848 AM CDT Tue Apr 09 2024

    Areas affected...Portions of central/east TX into northwestern LA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

    Valid 091348Z - 091545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A watch may be needed as the threat for tornadoes, large
    hail, and damaging winds gradually increases this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Warm advection associated with a 35-45 kt southerly
    low-level jet, along with ascent attendant to the left exit region
    of a southwesterly mid/upper-level jet, is aiding convection across
    parts of central/east TX into northwestern LA. Some of this activity
    across central TX is occurring near a convectively reinforced
    outflow boundary, with a rich low-level airmass present along/south
    of this boundary. Steep mid-level lapse rates are supporting
    1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE in central TX, even though daytime heating
    remains muted thus far, with lesser instability into east TX and
    northwestern LA. Still, strong deep-layer shear of 50+ kt will
    foster updraft organization and supercell potential. Large to very
    large hail will be a concern with these supercells as they spread east-northeastward this morning. An increasing potential for
    severe/damaging winds may be realized if a cluster forms along the
    outflow boundary/front. Sufficient low-level shear is also present
    for low-level updraft rotation and some tornado threat. Watch
    issuance may be needed if convection continues to increase in
    coverage and intensity across central TX.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/09/2024


    LAT...LON 30029806 30829766 31659640 31939477 32179397 32159343
    31369333 30959394 29939603 29559685 29579786 30029806

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