• MESO: Tornado Watch LA/MS

    From Dumas Walker@21:1/175 to All on Wednesday, April 10, 2024 07:49:00
    ACUS11 KWNS 101216
    SPC MCD 101216

    Mesoscale Discussion 0412
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0716 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

    Areas affected...Southern LA into Far Southwest MS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 100...101...

    Valid 101216Z - 101345Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 100, 101 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for strong to severe (60 to 80 mph) gusts and
    tornadoes remains from southern Louisiana and far southwest

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convective line exhibited a notable surge over
    the past half hour, with storm motion now estimated at 50-55 kt.
    Strong to severe gusts continue within this line, as evidenced by
    the impressive velocity signature from KLCH as well as the measured
    55 kt at WFO LCH. In addition to this surge, the storm motion has
    trended a bit more northeasterly, becoming even more perpendicular
    to the deep-layer vertical shear. Expectation is for this line to
    continue east-northeastward for at least the next few hours. Gusts
    from 60-80 mph remain possible within the line, with line-embedded
    tornadoes possible as well.

    Warm-air advection continues ahead of the line, with a few more
    organized cells manifesting within this regime. The overall
    parameter space, which is characterized by around 1000 J/kg of
    MLCAPE, 50 kt of deep-layer vertical shear, and 200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km
    SRH, supports a continued threat for supercells capable of all
    hazards, including tornadoes. Main deterrent for storm organization
    will be interference with other cells. The warm layer around 700 mb
    observed on the 12Z LIX sounding could act to suppress updraft
    intensity a bit as well. Even so, the general expectation is for the development of isolated to scattered supercells capable of all
    severe hazards.

    ..Mosier.. 04/10/2024


    LAT...LON 29269268 29269333 29709336 30159313 30599310 30869337
    31069340 31219285 31359228 31399047 30849000 29579053
    29559192 29269268

    = = =
    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)